Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza
Identifieur interne : 001228 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001227; suivant : 001229Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza
Auteurs : Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis] ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Pays-Bas]Source :
- Physics of Life Reviews [ 1571-0645 ] ; 2008.
Abstract
This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult to assess the transmission potential of a probable future pandemic, historical epidemiologic data is readily available from previous pandemics, and as a reference quantity for future pandemic planning, mathematical and statistical analyses of historical data are crucial. In particular, because many historical records tend to document only the temporal distribution of cases or deaths (i.e. epidemic curve), our review focuses on methods to maximize the utility of time-evolution data and to clarify the detailed mechanisms of the spread of influenza.
First, we highlight structured epidemic models and their parameter estimation method which can quantify the detailed disease dynamics including those we cannot observe directly. Duration-structured epidemic systems are subsequently presented, offering firm understanding of the definition of the basic and effective reproduction numbers. When the initial growth phase of an epidemic is investigated, the distribution of the generation time is key statistical information to appropriately estimate the transmission potential using the intrinsic growth rate. Applications of stochastic processes are also highlighted to estimate the transmission potential using similar data. Critically important characteristics of influenza data are subsequently summarized, followed by our conclusions to suggest potential future methodological improvements.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.plrev.2007.12.001
PubMed: NONE
PubMed Central: 7105222
Affiliations:
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza</title><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff001">School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85282, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85282</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Arizona</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002">Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL Utrecht, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL Utrecht</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>3584 CL Utrecht</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmc">7105222</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7105222</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7105222</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.plrev.2007.12.001</idno><idno type="pmid">NONE</idno><date when="2008">2008</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000E13</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000E13</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000E13</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000E13</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000B01</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000B01</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001390</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001390</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">001390</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">1571-0645:2008:Chowell G:quantifying:the:transmission</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">001239</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">001228</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">001228</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza</title><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff001">School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85282, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85282</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Arizona</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002">Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL Utrecht, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL Utrecht</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>3584 CL Utrecht</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Physics of Life Reviews</title><idno type="ISSN">1571-0645</idno><idno type="eISSN">1873-1457</idno><imprint><date when="2008">2008</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult to assess the transmission potential of a probable future pandemic, historical epidemiologic data is readily available from previous pandemics, and as a reference quantity for future pandemic planning, mathematical and statistical analyses of historical data are crucial. In particular, because many historical records tend to document only the temporal distribution of cases or deaths (i.e. epidemic curve), our review focuses on methods to maximize the utility of time-evolution data and to clarify the detailed mechanisms of the spread of influenza.</p><p>First, we highlight structured epidemic models and their parameter estimation method which can quantify the detailed disease dynamics including those we cannot observe directly. Duration-structured epidemic systems are subsequently presented, offering firm understanding of the definition of the basic and effective reproduction numbers. When the initial growth phase of an epidemic is investigated, the distribution of the generation time is key statistical information to appropriately estimate the transmission potential using the intrinsic growth rate. Applications of stochastic processes are also highlighted to estimate the transmission potential using similar data. Critically important characteristics of influenza data are subsequently summarized, followed by our conclusions to suggest potential future methodological improvements.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L. Simonsen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Park, A W" uniqKey="Park A">A.W. Park</name></author><author><name sortKey="Glass, K" uniqKey="Glass K">K. Glass</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Webster, R G" uniqKey="Webster R">R.G. 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Nishiura</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Duerr, H P" uniqKey="Duerr H">H.P. Duerr</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brockmann, S O" uniqKey="Brockmann S">S.O. Brockmann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Piechotowski, I" uniqKey="Piechotowski I">I. Piechotowski</name></author><author><name sortKey="Schwehm, M" uniqKey="Schwehm M">M. Schwehm</name></author><author><name sortKey="Eichner, M" uniqKey="Eichner M">M. Eichner</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Eichner, M" uniqKey="Eichner M">M. Eichner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Schwehm, M" uniqKey="Schwehm M">M. Schwehm</name></author><author><name sortKey="Duerr, H P" uniqKey="Duerr H">H.P. Duerr</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brockmann, S O" uniqKey="Brockmann S">S.O. Brockmann</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Pays-Bas</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Arizona</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Arizona"><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name></region></country><country name="Pays-Bas"><noRegion><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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